A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
